Latvia’s Demographic Shift: Ķekava Records Sharp 16% Decline in First-Grade Enrollment

Oliver Bennett Author

2026-05-15 13:02 • 4 min read

For the first time in recent history, the Ķekava municipality—a region traditionally seen as a growing suburban hub near Riga—is facing a significant contraction in its youngest student population. As the 2026/2027 academic year approaches, local education authorities have confirmed that only 405 children will begin their first-grade journey this September.

This figure represents a stark 16.5% decrease compared to the previous year, when 485 students entered the system. While a fluctuation of 80 students might seem minor in a metropolitan context, for a municipality like Ķekava, it serves as a critical indicator of a deepening demographic winter that is beginning to affect even the country’s most resilient regions.

Enrollment Breakdown by Institution

The distribution of these 405 students across the municipality’s five general education institutions reveals a tiered landscape of school sizes. While larger secondary schools continue to host multiple classes, smaller primary schools are operating on much thinner margins.

The data shows that Ķekava Secondary remains the primary educational anchor for the region, accounting for nearly 40% of all new enrollments. Conversely, the situation at Daugmale Primary School, with just nine students forming a single class, highlights the challenges of maintaining local educational infrastructure in less densely populated areas.

Understanding the Demographic Microcosm

It is important to interpret these figures with nuance. A single-year drop of 16% does not necessarily prove a permanent exodus from the region, but it does align with broader national trends. Latvia has been grappling with declining birth rates for several years, a trend that is now moving through the age cohorts and reaching the school gates.

Historically, Ķekava has been an outlier in Latvian demographics, often benefiting from “internal migration” as young families moved out of Riga to the suburbs. The fact that enrollment is now falling here suggests that the national birth rate decline is finally outpacing the gains made from internal relocation. This shift forces a reassessment of what was previously considered a “growth zone.”

Local authorities have noted that this is the first year such a significant drop has been recorded. It serves as a warning that the demographic pressures previously felt in more remote rural regions of Latgale or Vidzeme are now encroaching on the more affluent Pierīga (Greater Riga) area.

Infrastructure Adjustments and Future Planning

The decline in student numbers is already dictating local policy and fiscal decisions. Municipalities cannot afford to maintain underutilized facilities, leading to a strategy of consolidation and the cancellation of expansion projects.

In response to these demographic forecasts, the Ķekava municipality has already made several difficult decisions:
* Project Cancellations: Plans for a new preschool educational institution in the town of Baloži were scrapped in 2025 after data suggested the projected demand would not materialize.
* School Mergers: Baldone Primary School has been integrated into Baldone Secondary School to streamline administrative costs and optimize facility use.
* Budgetary Realignment: Funding for education is being shifted from infrastructure expansion to the maintenance and quality improvement of existing services.

As the municipality moves forward, the focus is shifting from “how to build more” to “how to optimize what we have.” For parents, the immediate impact is minimal—registration continues based on residency, and school management remains responsible for teacher allocation. However, for the long-term future of the region, these 405 first-graders represent a smaller foundation upon which the local economy and community will eventually be built.

Source: Ķekavas novada pašvaldība